The Expectancy Problem

Yesterday I’m sitting in Dallas having a conversation with another mentor, my man Stephen, I said give me some ideas about what I should share with the group tomorrow in the newsletter.

The following was inspired by many of his ideas, so no I will not take credit for this, I had a lot of insight downloaded…

He said something that instantly reframed follow up for me.

This is what he said.

“The difference between people who are great at follow up and people who aren’t is positive or negative expectancy.”

And the second he said it, I knew exactly what he meant. How many people follow up already believing it won’t work?

They send the email assuming no one will reply. Make the call expecting voicemail. Reach out already bracing for rejection.

This is negative expectancy.

And when that’s your starting point everything gets f*&ked up from the get go.

Your tone is off, energy is low. You hesitate, flinch.

He went a step further and said something that stung a little.

Most people aren’t experts at follow-up. They’re experts at their excuses. Eeeeeek.

Which category are you?

They know exactly why now isn’t the right time, why this person probably won’t respond, why it’s “not worth it.”

And all that expertise does is burn time, energy, and money. At some point you’re not being cautious - you’re a sell out, you’ve sold yourself out. It hurts to hear.

Ignoring the facts doesn’t change the facts…

Then he used this analogy that went even deeper.

The seasons.

Nobody questions the seasons.

You don’t wake up in January and say, “eh, I’m not sure if winter is gonna show up this year.”

You don’t negotiate with summer. You don’t overthink fall.

There’s certainty. Sure, some days are colder. Some days warmer. Some days weird.

But the season itself?

It is it.

Follow up should be the same way.

You shouldn’t be emotionally deciding each time whether to do it and for damn sure shouldn’t be questioning the process every time you don’t get the response you want.

Show up! Period.

Then we talked about rejection. This is where people really struggle.

People are so attached to rejection they can’t stand a clean “no.”

They take it personally while avoiding situations where rejection might happen.

At the same time they’re protecting themselves instead of exposing themselves.

Think about this, though…

Very few people married their first girlfriend or boyfriend. So isn’t it true you’ve already been rejected in life?

ANNNDDD you. survived. it.

WATCH THIS SEINFELD VIDEO AT 21 SECOND MARK TO UNDERSTAND HOW TO BRUSH OFF REJECTION.

He says, “things alwwaaaaays even out for me…” hehehehe

So, why does a prospect saying “no” feel like the end of the world?

Then while flushing out his notes on the flight home last night, I made some additional notes and wrote the following…

“How many people buy Powerball tickets expecting to win?”

Almost nobody.

So why do people still buy them?

Because if that tiny chance hits, it changes everything.

So the real question there is…

What’s the difference between buying a Powerball ticket and following up with a prospect that could directly impact your life and your family right now?

One costs money. The other creates money. One is blind luck. The other is discipline.

Yet people hesitate more on follow-up than they do on lottery tickets. Waiting in line for hours sometimes.

That’s wild when you think about it. I’m sure there are much deeper psychological points to unpack there, but the perspective shift alone should be worth an understanding.

Here’s what we need to take into the next season. Into 2026…

We’re done questioning follow up. It’s not something I debate with myself anymore.
It’s not something I wait to “feel ready” for.

It’s like the seasons. We make it happen because it happens.

We don’t need confidence or need certainty of the outcome, we don’t need guarantees. we need certainty in the process.

Certainty.

So, ask yourself honestly.

Are you flinching? Are you projecting rejection before it happens? Are you avoiding exposure and covering it as some excuse?

If so, we’ve got bigger problems than “following up.” That’s an expectancy problem.

Fix it and the rest starts to take care of itself.

See you next week, Follow Up Fam.

Manny “That Follow Up Guy” Vargas